| Err on side of
evacuation safety
As another hurricane season
descends upon us, the yearly question of evacuation times for
the Florida Keys has reared its head again.
Spokesmen from the state
Department of Community Affairs Office have let the county know
that they are not entirely comfortable with the series of paper
shuffles the county has gone through in recent years to decrease
evacuation times. Monroe County is under a mandate to be able to
evacuate everyone in the county in a 24-hour period so they can
be out of the way should a fast-forming major storm target our
small island chain.
If the county is unable to
evacuate everyone within 24 hours, the state has the option to
cut off any more residential building allocations until the
infrastructure catches up and the evac time can be reached.
More than a decade ago, the state
and county realized they couldn’t meet that goal, so they
changed the wording of the evacuation parameters to get under
the goal.
As the county continued to grow,
and more tourists poured in, the number was again exceeded.
Local emergency management
officials instituted a phased evacuation policy that calls for
tourists to be sent away early, mobile home park dwellers to be
sent away early, and only the full number of permanent residents
would count against the calculations.
Under the phased proposals,
the county reached an evacuation time of just under 24 hours.
Not content with that,
however, officials ran a different model that claimed since the
island chain would be snowbird-less during the summer months,
only about 75 percent of the units in the Keys would be
occupied. They then asserted that no more than 75 percent of the
population would actually evacuate in the face of a storm. Using
those manufactured numbers, the Governor was told that the Keys
could actually evacuate in just over 18 hours.
Evacuation planning for the Keys
has always been based on the worst case scenario to protect the
lives of the people who live here.
The new numbers the county was
throwing out were based on a best case scenario.
The phased evacuation is,
realistically, the only method to even approach a safe
evacuation time.
Tourists are sent out so
they’re gone 36 hours before anticipated landfall. Mobile home
park dwellers are sent out so they’re gone in the same time
frame, and then permanent residents are sent out in staged
phases so they are off the roads at least 12 hours before
storm-force winds hit the island chain.
All of this assumes that
emergency management officials have at least 72 hours from
realization of a potential strike to the strike.
That safety net has been
exceeded more than once in the Keys’ history.
We have long been part of the
group that says human safety cannot be compromised for
development.
Former District Four County
Commissioner David Rice perhaps said it best.
It was his contention that the
evacuation safety margin for the Keys hadn’t existed since the
1970s, and that shuffling numbers to open up more evacuation
time was just a sham. And, he claimed, that changing the numbers
was nothing more than a shell game to get the state to give
Monroe County more building permits.
The numbers of permits the state
will issue are tied to the evacuation clearance time and how far
below 24 hours it may be. The further under 24 hours, the more
permits can be issued.
The worst case scenario says that
a major storm forms close to South Florida and targets both the
Keys and Miami-Dade, from whatever direction. Thus, say
planners, the traffic in Florida City and nearby areas will
directly impact evacuation of the Keys.
They are absolutely right.
We’ve never been enamored of the
idea that we will always have ideal conditions under which to
evacuate our people. Mother Nature doesn’t play the game that
way.
New DCA Secretary Tom Pelham
apparently doesn’t feel that human lives are worth more than the
wining outcome in a shell game, either.
We applaud that stance, and hope
that this latest policy shift will remain in place. |